On November 11, 2024, gunfire near Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince struck multiple commercial aircraft operated by Spirit, JetBlue, and American Airlines, reportedly injuring at least one flight attendant. In response, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a 30-day ban on U.S. flights to Haiti, with Haiti’s government also barring flights into Port-au-Prince until further notice.

Meanwhile, Haiti’s interim Prime Minister, Garry Conville—appointed earlier this year to help stabilize the country amid a worsening security crisis—has been ousted by the Transitional Presidential Council, deepening the government’s instability and leaving a power vacuum as state control continues to erode.

Although an international police mission led by Kenya was deployed to support the Haitian National Police in restoring order, progress has been limited due to logistical challenges, insufficient personnel, and inadequate resources. Kenya has called for a transition of the mission to a more robust UN peacekeeping operation to more effectively address the growing crisis.

Analysis: The ongoing crisis in Haiti underscores a significant power shift, as armed gangs consolidate near-total control of Port-au-Prince. Denial of air traffic and other disruptions of critical supply routes allows gangs to limit government and international intervention, while projecting their own authority over the increasingly state-abandoned capital. The UN’s inability to deliver essential supplies will also exacerbate a humanitarian crisis which has already displaced nearly a million people. 

Increased migration is not the only regional pressure, as the unchecked spread of organized crime also risks spillover into the entire Caribbean. Haiti serves as a common transshipment hub for drug, arms, and human trafficking, and gangs have expanded their influence over these activities in recent years. Neighboring countries, including the Dominican Republic have called for the UN to designate the groups as terrorist organizations, a move that would enable more robust countermeasures against criminal networks. This comes amid deteriorating relations between the two countries sharing the island of Hispaniola. Last month, the Dominican Republic began a massive deportation plan, deporting over 10,000 suspected Haitians, with plans to expel an additional 10,000 every week.

The limited progress of the Kenyan-led mission in stabilizing Port-au-Prince highlights the need for stronger international intervention. Diplomatic pressure is mounting on the U.S. and regional allies to support expanded security measures. However, Haiti’s current weak governance structure also presents a high risk of corruption associated with such efforts. With the influence of armed organizations often exceeding those of the local government, it will likely be challenging to prevent interference and ensure overall mission integrity.

Haiti’s escalating gang violence reflects situations seen in many countries such as Mexico, Venezuela, and Somalia, where powerful criminal organizations exploit weak governance and limited state presence.  The situation in Port-au-Prince particularly parallels that of Mogadishu, Somalia, where in spite of international interventions, a prolonged power vacuum has allowed militant and criminal factions to assume authority over large swathes of territory. In Somalia, this dynamic has contributed to protracted instability, cycles of humanitarian crises, and an ongoing dependence on international support—conditions Haiti risks replicating as armed gangs fill the void left by the state.